Zanskar Claims Vast Untapped Potential in Global Geothermal Energy

The immense energy potential beneath our feet has led Department of Energy experts to project that geothermal power could supply 60 gigawatts—nearly 10% of U.S. electricity—by 2050.

Carl Hoiland, co-founder and CEO of Zanskar, believes this ambitious target is actually too conservative, primarily because it underestimates the potential of conventional geothermal energy.

The DOE's projections rely on advances in enhanced geothermal systems, which use fracking to access deep underground heat. Companies like Fervo and Sage Geosystems are pursuing this approach, and its potential is widely acknowledged. In contrast, conventional geothermal—which taps naturally occurring fractured hotspots—has seen little growth, producing only 4 gigawatts in the U.S., with just about a gigawatt added over the past decade.

According to Hoiland, outdated assumptions have hindered the progress of conventional geothermal energy.

"They significantly underestimated the number of undiscovered geothermal systems, possibly by an order of magnitude or more," Hoiland stated. With modern drilling methods, "we can extract far more energy from each site—potentially another order of magnitude increase. This transforms the potential from tens of gigawatts to what could be a terawatt-scale opportunity."

Zanskar is using AI to revitalize conventional geothermal energy. The startup has already revived a struggling power plant in New Mexico and identified two new sites with a combined potential of over 100 megawatts.

These achievements helped Zanskar secure a $115 million Series C funding round, led by Spring Lane Capital with participation from All Aboard Fund, Carica Sustainable Investments, Clearvision Ventures, Cross Creek, GVP Climate, Imperative Ventures, Lowercarbon Capital, Munich Re Ventures, Obvious Ventures, Orion Industrial Ventures, Safar Partners, StepStone Group, Susquehanna Sustainable Investments, Tranquillion, Union Square Ventures, University Growth Fund, and UP.Partners.

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Hoiland noted that many potential geothermal sites have been missed because exploration traditionally focused on surface indicators like hot springs or volcanoes. However, about 95% of geothermal systems lack such obvious signs, he added. "We've mostly discovered them by chance. This is where AI becomes incredibly valuable."

To locate new geothermal resources, Zanskar begins by training supervised machine learning models on various data, including previous accidental discoveries. Once a promising site is identified, a field team is dispatched to confirm the findings.

For development planning, Zanskar employs another AI technique called Bayesian evidential learning (BEL). BEL uses existing data to establish initial assumptions, or priors, and then models test and refute these hypotheses, generating probability estimates for each. Where data is insufficient, the company uses a proprietary geothermal simulator to fill the gaps.

Zanskar's strategy has proven effective so far. With previous funding, the startup successfully explored three sites. "Three out of three," said Zanskar co-founder and CTO Joel Edwards. "Now we're curious—what happens when we explore ten?"

Hoiland reported that the company has a pipeline of sites capable of supporting at least one gigawatt of generating capacity. Currently, their focus is on the western U.S., which holds the greatest potential. He aims to confirm at least ten sites to attract project finance investors, who offer lower-cost capital than venture capitalists. Success here could help Zanskar navigate the "valley of death" that has ended many other climate tech startups.

While Hoiland acknowledges that Zanskar hasn't solved every challenge in geothermal exploration, he is confident the company is on the right track.

"We now know this is the future of exploration," he said. "This approach will transform geothermal energy in a very short time."