HomeUS data centers may outpace Germany and Japan in natural gas use by 2035
The AI arms race has intensified to such a degree that U.S. data centers are projected to consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined by 2035.
Over the next decade, data centers are expected to become the second-largest driver of natural gas demand growth, trailing only LNG exports. According to a new report from BloombergNEF, these facilities could consume approximately 18 billion cubic feet per day, nearly double the figure predicted just nine months ago.
This updated forecast accounts for the likelihood that not all announced data center projects will be completed.
Recently, headlines have focused on data centers generating their own power, with tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon announcing plans to build new natural gas plants that bypass the grid. Such projects are projected to consume between 2.9 billion and 3.4 billion cubic feet per day by 2035, matching current total data center consumption, including natural gas used for grid power generation.
However, BloombergNEF suggests that onsite-powered data centers will represent only a small fraction of overall demand growth.
By the mid-2030s, grid-connected data centers are expected to drive an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas consumption by the power sector. To put this in perspective, this represents five times the demand growth through 2035 compared to all other grid-connected sectors combined.
If this remarkable demand growth materializes, it could push natural gas prices higher.
Current data center expansion relies on stable natural gas prices, which have characterized recent years. However, analysts at Noreva believe this may be a false assumption. The combined effect of the data center boom and rising LNG exports could cause prices to surge. Even if tech companies can absorb such a spike, utility ratepayers may not be able to.
Then there is the climate impact.
Burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of 60 grams of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, including emissions from extraction, processing, and distribution, according to the IEA. The additional demand from data centers will generate 1 million metric tons more greenhouse gas pollution daily, equivalent to about 12% of current total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
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The AI arms race has intensified to such a degree that U.S. data centers are projected to consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined by 2035.
Over the next decade, data centers are expected to become the second-largest driver of natural gas demand growth, trailing only LNG exports. According to a new report from BloombergNEF, these facilities could consume approximately 18 billion cubic feet per day, nearly double the figure predicted just nine months ago.
This updated forecast accounts for the likelihood that not all announced data center projects will be completed.
Recently, headlines have focused on data centers generating their own power, with tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon announcing plans to build new natural gas plants that bypass the grid. Such projects are projected to consume between 2.9 billion and 3.4 billion cubic feet per day by 2035, matching current total data center consumption, including natural gas used for grid power generation.
However, BloombergNEF suggests that onsite-powered data centers will represent only a small fraction of overall demand growth.
By the mid-2030s, grid-connected data centers are expected to drive an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas consumption by the power sector. To put this in perspective, this represents five times the demand growth through 2035 compared to all other grid-connected sectors combined.
If this remarkable demand growth materializes, it could push natural gas prices higher.
Current data center expansion relies on stable natural gas prices, which have characterized recent years. However, analysts at Noreva believe this may be a false assumption. The combined effect of the data center boom and rising LNG exports could cause prices to surge. Even if tech companies can absorb such a spike, utility ratepayers may not be able to.
Then there is the climate impact.
Burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of 60 grams of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, including emissions from extraction, processing, and distribution, according to the IEA. The additional demand from data centers will generate 1 million metric tons more greenhouse gas pollution daily, equivalent to about 12% of current total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
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