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SpaceX Valuation Reaches $1.78 Trillion as AI Business Surges 100x in Five Years, Becoming Biggest Chip
As SpaceX officially launches its IPO roadshow, market attention is squarely on its valuation expectations. According to multiple media reports, lead underwriter Goldman Sachs presented a valuation model to potential investors suggesting SpaceX could reach up to $1.78 trillion at its initial public offering. However, the core factor behind this eye-popping figure is not its traditional aerospace operations—it's the company's rapidly expanding artificial intelligence segment.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX's AI revenue will surge from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030—a more than 100-fold increase in five years. Over the same period, total company revenue is expected to climb from $18.7 billion in 2024 to $474 billion. Goldman also estimates that adjusted EBITDA will grow from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion in 2030, with free cash flow turning positive at $72 billion in 2031, compared to a negative $13.8 billion last year.
Based on the prospectus, SpaceX's long-term growth trajectory depends heavily on its AI business. Its AI subsidiary xAI is assigned a potential market of up to $26.5 trillion, far exceeding the combined ~$2 trillion market for Starlink satellite internet and aerospace launch services. Goldman expects AI revenue to jump 388% year over year to $15.6 billion in 2026 and then to $34.5 billion in 2027. By contrast, Starlink revenue is projected at $144 billion by 2030, and rocket launch revenue is expected to grow from $4.1 billion last year to $8.3 billion—both significantly lower than the AI segment's contribution.
Yet these ambitious projections come with real challenges. To hit revenue targets, xAI's Grok series of large language models must compete with top players like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI in key areas such as code development, cybersecurity, AI agents, and general dialogue. However, xAI has experienced frequent management turnover since its founding, with Musk removing all ten co-founders within two years. Its product commercialization has also fallen short of market expectations. The "Colossus1" supercomputing data center in Memphis, Tennessee, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts, once saw low utilization due to insufficient Grok demand, even renting computing power to competitors like Anthropic.
Goldman Sachs secured the lead underwriting role for this IPO, beating out rivals such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and UBS. With a maximum fundraising target of $86 billion, the underwriting group stands to earn millions in commission fees. Market observers view this mega-IPO, which bets on AI's growth potential, as a key test of the capital market's long-term valuation of artificial intelligence.
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As SpaceX officially launches its IPO roadshow, market attention is squarely on its valuation expectations. According to multiple media reports, lead underwriter Goldman Sachs presented a valuation model to potential investors suggesting SpaceX could reach up to $1.78 trillion at its initial public offering. However, the core factor behind this eye-popping figure is not its traditional aerospace operations—it's the company's rapidly expanding artificial intelligence segment.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX's AI revenue will surge from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030—a more than 100-fold increase in five years. Over the same period, total company revenue is expected to climb from $18.7 billion in 2024 to $474 billion. Goldman also estimates that adjusted EBITDA will grow from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion in 2030, with free cash flow turning positive at $72 billion in 2031, compared to a negative $13.8 billion last year.
Based on the prospectus, SpaceX's long-term growth trajectory depends heavily on its AI business. Its AI subsidiary xAI is assigned a potential market of up to $26.5 trillion, far exceeding the combined ~$2 trillion market for Starlink satellite internet and aerospace launch services. Goldman expects AI revenue to jump 388% year over year to $15.6 billion in 2026 and then to $34.5 billion in 2027. By contrast, Starlink revenue is projected at $144 billion by 2030, and rocket launch revenue is expected to grow from $4.1 billion last year to $8.3 billion—both significantly lower than the AI segment's contribution.
Yet these ambitious projections come with real challenges. To hit revenue targets, xAI's Grok series of large language models must compete with top players like Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI in key areas such as code development, cybersecurity, AI agents, and general dialogue. However, xAI has experienced frequent management turnover since its founding, with Musk removing all ten co-founders within two years. Its product commercialization has also fallen short of market expectations. The "Colossus1" supercomputing data center in Memphis, Tennessee, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts, once saw low utilization due to insufficient Grok demand, even renting computing power to competitors like Anthropic.
Goldman Sachs secured the lead underwriting role for this IPO, beating out rivals such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and UBS. With a maximum fundraising target of $86 billion, the underwriting group stands to earn millions in commission fees. Market observers view this mega-IPO, which bets on AI's growth potential, as a key test of the capital market's long-term valuation of artificial intelligence.
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